10 Pathfinder trend predictions for 2024

The Pound
Following the 2023 appreciation for Sterling we see that continuing for 2024, despite headwinds of a general election and record deficit we see the 1.5 level against the dollar being hit again – rates not seen since before the 2016 referendum to leave the EU. Interest rates will remain high compared to the US and EU which we see cutting rates next year before the UK.

Universal Basic Income Experiment
A major developed country launches a large-scale experiment with a universal basic income (UBI) program, aiming to test its potential impact on economic inequality and workforce dynamics. Once considered a fringe solution, Universal Basic Income (UBI) is now gaining broad traction among G10 governments as they grapple with the challenges of income inequality and the impending impact of technology on job displacement. Beyond its practical benefits, UBI is proving politically advantageous, especially for parties like the UK Conservatives seeking to rejuvenate their electoral appeal.

Crypto-Backed National Currency
A smaller nation announces the adoption of a national currency fully backed by a cryptocurrency, attempting to leverage blockchain technology for economic stability.

Microsoft stays number 1
The words biggest company gets even bigger, and the share price surges to new all-time highs. The reason – is Microsoft’s focus in the last few years on Artificial intelligence initiatives. Bill Gates, renowned for his daring ‘bet the farm every 7 years’ approach – we think has made the right call again.

Robo-Advisor Market Dominance
Artificial intelligence and machine learning advancements lead to a surge in the popularity of robot-advisors, causing a significant shift in the investment landscape and traditional financial advisory services.

Biotech IPO Boom
Breakthroughs in biotechnology lead to a surge in initial public offerings (IPOs) for companies focused on gene editing, personalized medicine, and innovative healthcare solutions.

Quantum Computing Impact
The first practical applications of quantum computing in finance emerge, revolutionizing algorithms and security measures but also introducing new risks and uncertainties. With the developments in the space certain to move faster than regulators than establish guidelines and standards for Quantum-based financial systems. There are Ethical concerns the use of algorithms in credit agreements for example could raise questions about fairness. The computer says no!

Uranium goes nuclear in 2024
The value of the radioactive element goes up due to the increasing global demand for clean energy as a solution to the climate crisis. Governments worldwide will prioritize nuclear power, given its low greenhouse gas emissions, as part of their efforts to achieve ambitious carbon reduction targets. Advances in nuclear technology, a potential shift in public perception, and the need for energy security drive investments in nuclear power infrastructure, leading to heightened demand for uranium. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, may contribute to this trend by expanding their nuclear energy capacities. Additionally, concerns about future supply shortages and the long-term nature of nuclear power contracts may further support an upward trend in uranium prices.

Renewable Energy Dominance
To continue with the energy theme, due to advancements in storage technology, renewable energy sources achieve cost parity with traditional fossil fuels on a global scale, triggering a rapid shift toward a predominantly green energy economy.

Japanese Yen set for liftoff
Japan’s economic revival accelerates post-deflation, witnessing a 3.6% rise in 2023 salaries, expected to exceed 4% in 2024. PM Kishida’s populist policies, alongside proposed consumption tax cuts, shift the Japanese consumer mindset. Businesses respond with increased capital investment, supported by abundant reserves and a 13.3% projected increase noted in BoJ’s Tankan survey. Employment dynamics change amid an aging population, creating wage pressures and a virtuous cycle. Japan prioritizes technology diffusion for productivity gains, attracting global investments. However, the BoJ’s move to end yield curve control in 2024 sparks a global bond market rout, strengthening the yen as Japanese investors repatriate assets.

Our Thoughts
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